Self-fulfilling prophecy

A self-fulfilling prophecy is a prediction that, in being made, actually causes itself to become true. Although examples of self-fulfilling prophecies can be found in human literature as far back as ancient Greece, it is 20th century sociologist Robert K. Merton who is credited with coining the expression "self-fulfilling prophecy" and formalising its structure and consequences. In his book Social Theory and Social Structure, Merton gives the following definition:

The self-fulfilling prophecy is, in the beginning, a false definition of the situation evoking a new behaviour which makes the original false conception come true. Robert K. Merton, Social Theory and Social Structure, Free Press, 1968, p. 477, ISBN 0029211301.

In other words, a false prophetic statement may affect humans (through fear or logical confusion) to take actions that will ultimately result in fulfillment of the prophecy.

Psychology

History

Robert K. Merton's concept of the self-fulfilling prophecy stems from the Thomas theorem, which states that:

If men define situations as real, they are real in their consequences. W. I. Thomas, The Child in America: Behavior Problems and Programs, New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1928, p. 572..

In other words, people do not react only to the situations they are in, but also, and often primarily, to the way they perceive the situations and to the meaning they assign to these situations. Therefore, their behavior is determined in part by their perception and the meaning they ascribe to the situations they are in, rather than by the situations themselves. Once a person convinces themselves that a situation really has a certain meaning, regardless of whether it actually does, they will take very real actions in consequence.

Merton took the concept a step further. In his book Social Theory and Social Structure, he conceives of the fictional bank of Cartwright Millingville. It is a typical bank, and Millingville has run it honestly and quite properly. As a result, like all banks, it has some liquid assets (cash), but most of its assets are invested in various ventures. Then one day, a large number of customers come to the bank at once - possibly because they had all been laid off that day and needed cash, but the exact reason is never made clear. The consequence of seeing so many people at the bank at once, however, is to cause more customers to worry. As false rumours that something's wrong with the bank begin to spread, more customers rush to the bank to try to get some of their money out while they still can. The number of customers at the bank increases, as does their annoyance and excitement, which in turn fuels the false rumours of the bank's insolvency and upcoming bankruptcy, and causes more customers to come and try to withdraw their money. At the beginning of the day - the last one for Millingville's bank - the bank was not insolvent. But the rumour of insolvency caused a sudden demand of withdrawal of too many customers, which could not be answered, causing the bank to become insolvent and declare bankruptcy. Merton concludes this example with the following analysis:

The parable tells us that public definitions of a situation (prophecies or predictions) become an integral part of the situation and thus affect subsequent developments, This is peculiar to human affairs. It is not found in the world of nature, untouched by human hands. Predictions of the return of Halley’s comet do not influence its orbit. But the rumoured insolvency of Millingville’s bank did affect the actual outcome. The prophecy of collapse led to its own fulfillment.Robert K. Merton, Social Theory and Social Structure, Free Press, 1968, p. 477, ISBN 0029211301.

Applications

Examples abound in studies of cognitive dissonance theory and the related self-perception theory; people will often change their attitudes to come into line with what they profess publicly.

Other specific examples discussed in psychology include:

Literature, media, and the arts

In literature, self-fulfilling prophecies are often used as plot devices. They have been used in stories for millennia, but have gained a lot of popularity recently in the Science fiction genre. They are typically used ironically, with the prophesised events coming to pass due to the actions of one trying to prevent the prophecy.

Classic

One of the earliest examples of self-fulfilling prophecies in literature is the ancient Greek legend of Oedipus. Warned that his child would one day kill him, Laius abandoned his newborn son Oedipus to die. But Oedipus was instead adopted by a foster family, and kept ignorant of his true origins. When he grew up, Oedipus was warned that he would kill his father and marry his mother. Believing his foster parents were his real parents, he left his home and travelled Greece, eventually reaching the city where his biological parents lived. There, he got into a fight with a stranger and killed him, and married his widow. Unknown to anyone at the time, the stranger was Oedipus’ real father, and the widow he married was his mother. Hence, the prophecy about him had come true because of everyone's attempts to prevent it.

Shakespeare's Macbeth is another classic example of a self-fulfilling prophecy. The three witches give Macbeth a prophecy that Macbeth tries to fulfill. In the end, the prophecy ends up coming true; however, there is always the question of what would have happened had Macbeth not heard the prophecy from the witches originally.

Many fairy tales, such as The Devil With the Three Golden Hairs or The King Who Would Be Stronger Than Fate, revolve about a prophecy that a poor boy will marry a rich girl, Aarne-Thompson type 930. The girl's father's efforts to prevent it are the reason why the boy ends up marrying her.

In some variants of Sleeping Beauty, the sleep is not brought about by a curse, but a prophesy results in the royal order to remove all the flax or hemp from the castle, resulting in her ignorance of the danger.

Modern

In more recent arts, the plot of the 2005 movie Revenge of the Sith was based around a self-fulfilling prophecy. The main character, Anakin Skywalker, has a premonitory dream about the death of his wife Padmé Amidala. He searches for a way to save her, and in desperation, allies himself with the evil Sith. However, it is Anakin’s turn to evil that ends up killing Padmé.

In Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix, a prophecy was made at Harry Potter’s birth, saying that neither he nor Dark Lord could live while the other survived. To protect himself, the Dark Lord attempted to kill Harry Potter while he was an infant, but his curse backfired on him. Because of the transfer of power that occurred as a result this, the prophecy now has to be fulfilled in order for them to live in peace.

In the computer game Guild Wars, it is prophesied that some Chosen will destroy a race called "Mursaat". To prevent the prophecies from coming true, the Mursaat and some of their worshippers, the White Mantle, kill as many Chosen as possible. However, when a group of heroes see the Chosen being killed, they turn against and eventually destroy the White Mantle and the Mursaat to prevent further killings, only later to discover that they are Chosen.

The British comedy Red Dwarf plays frequently with this notion. In series eight, a self-fulfilling prophecy started by the words "Rimmer will die in forty seconds of a heart attack from the shock of being told he's going to have a heart attack." In the Series 1 episode "Future Echoes", Lister learns that Cat will break a tooth. Believing that he can prevent this, he tackles Cat to stop him from biting a robotic fish. In the collision, he breaks Cat’s tooth.

Several classic episodes of The Twilight Zone used self-fulfilling prophecies. One example is What's in the Box, in which a man sees himself on television killing his wife because he had an affair. He tries to confess to his wife, but ends up killing her in the ugly fight the confession triggers.

The movie The Matrix heavily incorporates the idea of self-fulfilling prophecies. One recognizable scene that directly references to it is when Morpheus takes Neo to see the Oracle. When Neo walks in to speak to the Oracle, she says "I'd ask you to sit down, but you're not going to anyway. And don't worry about the vase." Neo answers "What vase?" and turns around to see what she could be talking about, but in so doing knocks over and breaks a vase that was sitting on a counter next to him. Neo apologizes and the Oracle tells him not to worry about it. Neo asks how she knew, to which the Oracle responds, "What's really going to bake your noodle later on is: would you still have broken it if I hadn't said anything?"

The plot of the 1988 movie Willow also incorporates a self-fulfilling prophecy: warned that Elora Danan's birth will lead to her destruction, the evil Queen Bavmorda orders to kill the baby; however, her attempts to achieve this result in her own destruction.

In the webcomic The Wotch, several prophecies are made concerning the rise of Melleck Xaos. At one point, rebel soldiers fighting against Xaos acquire a special pear that he is prophesied to obtain, which is placed in the care of a loyal wizard. They later catch this wizard handing the pearl over to Xaos' minions, and it is heavily implied that he only does so because he believes the prophecies are inevitable and wishes to minimize the bloodshed as they are fulfilled.

Technology

In 1965, Gordon Moore predicted that the number of transistors on integrated circuits would double every 18 months. This prediction, which became known as Moore's law, was initially an observation of a trend in the early days of the semiconductor industry. However, it has become a benchmark for progress in the industry, and a goal that companies focus on attaining. It thus became a self-fulfilling prophecy.

References

attitude attribution | Causality

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