A derivative is a generic term for specific types of investments from which payoffs over time are derived from the performance of assets (such as commodities, shares or bonds), interest rates, exchange rates, or indices (such as a stock market index, consumer price index (CPI) or an index of weather conditions). This performance can determine both the amount and the timing of the payoffs. The diverse range of potential underlying assets and payoff alternatives leads to a huge range of derivatives contracts available to be traded in the market. The main types of derivatives are futures, forwards, options and swaps.
| UNDERLYING | CONTRACT TYPE | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange traded futures | Exchange traded options | OTC swap | OTC forward | OTC option | |
| Equity Index | DJIA Index future NASDAQ Index future | Option on DJIA Index future Option on NASDAQ Index future | n/a | Back-to-back | n/a |
| Money market | Eurodollar future Euribor future | Option on Eurodollar future Option on Euribor future | Interest rate swap | Forward rate agreement | Interest rate cap and floor Swaption Basis swap |
| Bonds | Bond future | Option on Bond future | n/a | Repurchase agreement | Bond option |
| Single Stocks | Single-stock future | Single-share option | Equity swap | Repurchase agreement | Stock option Warrant Turbo warrant |
| Foreign exchange | FX future | Option on FX future | Currency swap | FX forward | FX option |
| Credit | n/a | n/a | Credit default swap | n/a | Credit default option |
Other examples of underlyings are:
Some derivatives are the right to buy or sell the underlying security or commodity at some point in the future for a predetermined price. If the price of the underlying security or commodity moves into the right direction, the owner of the derivative makes money; otherwise, they lose money or the derivative becomes worthless. Depending on the terms of the contract, the potential gain or loss on a derivative can be much higher than if they had traded the underlying security or commodity directly.
Complications can arise with OTC or floor-traded contracts though, as trading is handled manually, making it difficult to automatically broadcast prices. In particular with OTC contracts, there is no central exchange to collate and disseminate prices.
A key equation for the theoretical valuation of options is the Black-Scholes formula, which is based on the assumption that the cash flows from a European stock option can be replicated by a continuous buying and selling strategy using only the stock. A simplified version of this valuation technique is the binomial options model.
It is not uncommon for farmers to walk away smiling when they have lost out in the derivatives market as the result of a hedge. In this case, they have profited from the real market from the sale of their crops. Contrary to popular belief, financial markets are not always a zero-sum game. This is an example of a situation where both parties in a financial markets transaction benefit.
Another example is the company General Electric. This company uses derivatives to "match funding" (GE webcast on derivatives) to mitigate interest rate and currency risk, and to lock in material costs. The program is strictly for forecasted and highly anticipated needs, and not a means to generate non-operating revenues. 90% of all derivatives revenue produced by derivatives sellers is for this kind of cost, cash, accounts receivable and accounts payable planning. On 2005-06 the company restated earnings with as much as $0.05 quarterly EPS (over 10%) in Q3 2003 (Revised 2004 10K (PDF, 787 KB)).
Of course, speculators may trade with other speculators as well as with hedgers. In most financial derivatives markets, the value of speculative trading is far higher than the value of true hedge trading. As well as outright speculation, derivatives traders may also look for arbitrage opportunities between different derivatives on identical or closely related underlying securities.
Other uses of derivatives are to gain an economic exposure to an underlying security in situations where direct ownership of the underlying is too costly or is prohibited by legal or regulatory restrictions, or to create a synthetic short position.
In addition to directional plays (i.e. simply betting on the direction of the underlying security), speculators can use derivatives to place bets on the volatility of the underlying security. This technique is commonly used when speculating with traded options.
Speculative trading in derivatives gained a great deal of notoriety in 1995 when Nick Leeson, a trader at Barings Bank, made poor and unauthorized investments in index futures. Through a combination of poor judgment on his part, lack of oversight by management, a naive regulatory environment and unfortunate outside events like the Kobe earthquake, Leeson incurred a 1.3 billion dollar loss that bankrupted the centuries old financial institution.
On December 6, 1994, Orange County declared Chapter 9 bankruptcy, from which it emerged in June 1995. The county lost about $1.6 billion through derivatives trading.
Because derivatives offer the possibility of large rewards, many individuals have the strong desire to invest in derivatives. Most financial planners caution against this, pointing out that an investor in derivatives often assumes a great deal of risk, and therefore investments in derivatives must be made with caution, especially for the small investor (*). One should keep in mind that one purpose of derivatives is as a form of insurance, to move risk from someone who cannot afford a major loss to someone who could absorb the loss, or is able to hedge against the risk by buying some other derivative.
Economists generally believe that derivatives have a positive impact on the economic system by allowing the buying and selling of risk. Since someone loses money while someone else gains money with a derivative, under normal circumstances, trading in derivatives should not adversely affect the economic system. However, many economists are worried that derivatives may cause an economic crisis at some point in the future.
There is the danger, however, that someone would lose so much money that they would be unable to pay for their losses. This might cause chain reactions which could create an economic crisis. In 2002, legendary investor Warren Buffett commented in Berkshire Hathaway's annual report that he regarded them as 'financial weapons of mass destruction', an allusion to the phrase 'weapons of mass destruction' relating to physical weapons which had wide currency at the time.
Former Federal Reserve Board chairman Alan Greenspan commented in 2003 that he believed that the use of derivatives has softened the impact of the economic downturn at the beginning of the 21st century.
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