The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict From 1500 to 2000 explores the politics and economics of the Great Powers from 1500 to 1980 and the reason for their decline. It then continues by forecasting the positions of the China, Japan, the European Economic Community (EEC), the Soviet Union and the United States through the turn of the century.

Summary

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Kennedy argues that the strength of a Great Power can only be properly measured relative to other powers and he provides a straightforward and persuasively argued thesis: Great Power ascendency (over the long-term or in specific conflicts) correlates strongly to available resources and economic durability; military "over-stretch" and a concomitant relative decline is the consistent threat facing powers whose ambitions and security requirements are greater than their resource base can provide for.

As the opening sentence indicates, the book starts at the dividing line between pre- and modern history—1500. It briefly discusses the Ming and Muslim Worlds of the time and the rise of the western powers relative to them. As the Table of Contents indicates he then proceeds chronologically looking at each of the power shifts over time and the effect on other Great Powers and the "Middle Powers".

Kennedy uses a number of measures to indicate real, relative and potential strength of nations throughout the book. The changes the measurement technique based on the point in time. For instance, prior to the twentieth century some of his measures to rank the power of a nation include the ratio of urban to total population, steel production, energy consumption from modern fuels (not wood or dung) and manufacturing output. For the twentieth century he uses arms production and tons of steel or coal to produce a given GNP output.

He uses the trends that he has highlighted to set the stage for his hypothesis. Although he uses many examples, he tends to focus on the rise of the United States in World War II, with its massive manufacturing potential and self-sufficiency and its subsequent gradual relative decline.

Throughout the book he reiterates his early statement (page 71) "Military and naval endeavors may not always have been the raison d'être of the new nations-states, but it certainly was their most expensive and pressing activity" and it remains such until the power's decline.

He compares the Great Powers at the close of the twentieth century and predicts the decline of the Soviet Union, the rise of China and Japan, the struggles and potential for the EEC and the relative decline of the United States. He highlights the precedence of the "four modernizations" in Deng Xiaoping's plans for China - agriculture, industry, science and military - deemphasizing military while the United States and the Soviet Union are emphasizing it. He predicts that continued deficit spending, especially on military build-up, will be the single most important reason for decline of any Great Power.

Table of Contents

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• Strategy and Economics in the Preindusrtrial World
  • The Rise of the Western World
  • The Habsburg Bid for Mastery, 1519-1659
  • Finance, Geography, and the Winning of Wars, 1660-1815

• Strategy and Economics in the Industrial Era
  • Industrialization and the Shifting Global Balances, 1815-1885
  • The Coming of a Bipolar World and the Crisis of the "Middle Powers": Part One, 1885-1918
  • The Coming of a Bipolar World and the Crisis of the "Middle Powers": Part Two, 1919-1942

• Strategy and Economics Today and Tomorrow
  • Stability and Change in a Bipolar World, 1943-1980
  • To the Twenty-first Century

Maps, Tables and Charts

The book has twelve maps, forty-nine tables and three charts to assist the reader in understanding the text.

Publication Data

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The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers is the fifth and best-known book by historian Paul Kennedy. Originally published in hardcover in 1987 it became a bestseller and is considered the most comprehensive overview of Great Power history.

Republished: January 1989, Paperback, ISBN 0679720197, 704 pages

Additional Information

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In addition the reader may want to have an historical atlas at hand to further assist in understanding the frequent border changes in this span. Two such altases are Historical Atlas of the World and The Times Atlas of World History.

Opposing Kennedy's view: Why 'The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers' was wrong (PDF)

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