Montenegrin independence referendum, 2006

The Montenegrin independence referendum was a referendum on the independence of the Republic of Montenegro from Serbia and Montenegro that was held on May 21, 2006.

After a night of pre-emptive celebrations among the pro-independence camp, official results of the referendum showed that 55.5 per cent voted in favour and 44.5 were against finally severing the loose federation with their larger neighbour.AP: Montenegro Decides to Secede from Serbia Fifty-five per cent affirmative votes were needed to dissolve the state union of Serbia and Montenegro, an option favoured by the coalition government (DPS and SDP).

By 23 May, the preliminary referendum result was recognised by all five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, indicating widespread international recognition of Montenegro once independence is formally declared.

Montenegro's referendum commissionReferendum Commission of Montenegro on Wednesday 31 May, officially confirmedOfficial Press Release the results of the country's 21st of May referendum on independence from Serbia, verifying that 55.5% of the population of Montenegro voting had voted in favour. Because voters met the controversial threshold requirement of 55% approval set by the EU, the referendum was incorporated into a declaration of independence during a special parliamentary session on 31 May. The Montenegrin Parliament made a formal Declaration of Independence on Saturday 3 June.BBC: "Montenegro declares independence"

In response to the announcement, the government of Serbia declaredSerbian Press Release that Serbia is the legal and political successor of Serbia and Montenegro, and that the government and parliament of Serbia itself will soon adopt a new constitution.Press Release The European Union, United States, People's Republic of China, Russia, and neighbouring Croatia all expressed their intentions to respect the referendum results.

Constitutional background

The process of secession was regulated by the Constitutional Charter of Serbia and Montenegro. Article 60 of the constitution required that a minimum of three years pass after its ratification before one of the member states could declare independence. The same article specified the referendum as necessary for this move. However, this constitution allows member states to define referendum laws.

It is also specified that the member state which secedes forfeits any rights to political and legal continuity of the federation. This means that the seceding state will have to apply to membership to all major international institutions, such as the United Nations and be recognized by the international community. No state objected to recognizing a newly formed state prior to the referendum.

Legal procedure

Before the referendum

According to the Montenegrin ConstitutionConstitution of the Republic of Montenegro, state status cannot be changed without a referendum and the President of the state proposes a referendum to the Parliament. The referendum bill was introduced by the president of Montenegro, Filip Vujanović, and it was unanimously passed by the Montenegrin Assembly on 2 March 2006.B92: Referendum 21. maja

After the referendum

The Referendum Bill obliges the Assembly which introduced the referendum to respect its outcome. It has to declare the official results within 15 days, and act upon them within 60 days.

Changes to the Montenegrin Constitution which involve changes of the state status require dissolving the Assembly when the bill is passed, and convocation of the new one within 90 days. The new Assembly has to adopt, with two thirds majority, such changes to the Constitution, or accept a new document.

The newly-independent nation of Serbia, which will be the successor state to the state union of Serbia and Montenegro, while favouring the status quo and a loose federation, has stated publicly that it would respect the outcome of the election and not interfere with Montenegrin sovereignty.

Referendum rules controversies

There has been considerable controversy over suffrage and needed result threshold for independence. The Montenegrin government, which supports independence, initially advocated simple majority, but the opposition insisted on a certain threshold below which the referendum, if a "yes" won, would be moot.

European Union envoy Miroslav Lajčák proposed independence if a 55% supermajority of votes are cast in favour with a minimum turnout of 50%, a determination that prompted some protests from the pro-independence forces. The Council of the European Union unanimously agreed to Lajčák's proposal, and the Đukanović government ultimately backed down in its opposition.EU Observer article, subscription needed

Another controversial issue was the referendum law, which relied on the constitution of Serbia and Montenegro, which, again, clearly stated that Montenegrins living within Serbia that are voters in Serbia would not be allowed to vote in the referendum because that would give them two votes in the union and make them superior to other citizens. The fact that democracy was already shaken when the Independist Block was handicapped by the 55% quota made it a clear choice for EU to ban "Serbian Montenegrins" from voting and thus further hurting the democratic value of the process.

Referendum question

Želite li da Republika Crna Gora bude nezavisna država sa punim međunarodno-pravnim subjektivitetom (as it appeared on the ballot)Official Ballot (PDF)

Желите ли да Република Црна Гора буде независна држава са пуним међународно-правним субјективитетом (translation from Latin script above to Cyrillic script)

Do you want the Republic of Montenegro to be an independent state with a full international and legal personality (as translated by OSCEMontenegro Referendum (PDF))

Alleged irregularities during campaigning

On 24 March 2006, a nine-minute video clip was aired that shows two local DPS activists from Zeta region, Ranko Vučinić and Ivan Ivanović, along with a former member of secret police, Vasilije Mijovic, attempting to bribe citizen Mašan Bušković into casting a pro-independence vote at the upcoming referendum. In the video clip they're seen and heard persuading Buskovic to vote for independence, and they promise to pay off his electric bill of €1,500 in return.

When the video became public, two DPS activists claimed they were victims of manipulation and that Vasilije Mijovic talked them into doing so. Mijovic denied those claims saying the video is authentic. DPS spokesperson Predrag Sekulić claimed the video was "a montage" and "a cheap political setup." Mašan Bušković, the target of the alleged attempted bribe, on the other hand said the video is authentic and that it portrays events exactly as they occurred.RTS: Opozicija prikazala film o kupovini glasova

Opinion polling

Polling throughout the campaign was sporadic, with most polls showing pro-independence forces leading but not surpassing the 55% threshold. Only in the later weeks did polls begin to indicate the threshold would be passed, albeit barely.EUObserver: EU awaits Montenegro independence vote

Results

According to the first estimates at 21:00 (CET), when the voting stations closed, 86.6% of eligible voters – or 419,000 voters out of 484,718 eligible (in 1,124 voting areas) – voted, local NGO organisations monitoring the referendum said.DTT-NET: Voting ends with high turnout at Montenegro referendum

At 23:45, the final preliminary results by CeSID showed that 55.3%B92: Crna Gora nezavisna of the vote was in favour of independence for Montenegro. The government claimed victory after these results and thousands of people began to celebrate in the streets of every major city. DTT-NET: Montenegro government claims independence victory

Montenegrin prime minister Milo Đukanović appeared on Montenegrin television station at about 01:40 CEST and said that after 99.85% of the votes had been counted, the percentage of votes for independence was 55.5%, and the remaining votes could not change the outcome of the referendum.CNN: Poll: Montenegro quits Serbia

On the other side, leader of the unionist bloc, Predrag Bulatović, said at a press conference around 00:15 CEST that "his sources" informed him that 54% voted "yes", a figure below the 55% threshold. Predrag Bulatović had announced earlier that he would resign as opposition leader if the referendum was won by those favouring independence.

František Lipka, the referendum commission president or Chairman of the Electoral Commission announced on Monday the 22 May 2006 that the preliminary results were 55.4% in favor of independence.AP: Montenegro Votes to Secede from Serbia Prime Minister of the Republic of Montenegro Milo Đukanović held a press conference later that day. The press conference took place at 14:30, at the Congress Hall of the Government of the Republic of Montenegro.Prime Minister of Montenegro

Due to the fact that about 19,000 votes were still disputed, the Electoral Commission delayed the announcement of final results. The opposition demanded a full recount of the votes but this was rejected by the Commission and European observers, who state that they are satisfied the vote was free and fair.BBC: Recount call in Montenegro vote On 23 May 2006, the Electoral Commission released the final results which stated that 230,711 (55.53%) Montenegrins had voted for independence versus 184,954 (44.47%) against; a turnout of 86.3%.BBC: Montenegro vote result confirmed

The distribution of votes was the following: majority (around 60%-up to around 70%) were against independence in regions bordering Serbia and Republika Srpska. The highest No vote was in Serbian-majority Plužine municipality with 75.70%. In the authentic Montenegrin regions (Principality of Montenegro), there was a light majority (around 50-55%) for independence, with the Cetinje municipality, traditional centre of old Montenegro, having a huge percentage in favour of independence (over 86.38%). At the coastal regions, Herceg Novi municipality, which has a Serbian majority had voted 61.34% against independence, the middle regions being slightly in favour, and the south, Ulcinj municipality, an ethnic Albanian centre, voted in favour of independence (88.50%). The regions bordering Albania and Kosovo that have mostly Bosniak, Muslim and Albanian population, were heavily in favor of independence (78.92% in Plav, 91.33% in Rožaje). Municipalities in Montenegro that voted for the Union were Andrijevica, Berane, Kolašin, Mojkovac, Plužine, Pljevlja, Herceg-Novi, Šavnik, and Žabljak. The municipalities that voted for independence were Bar, Bijelo Polje, Budva, Cetinje, Danilovgrad, Kotor, Nikšić, Plav, Podgorica, Rožaje, Tivat, and Ulcinj.Electoral Commission website

It is believed that the pro-independence stance of Albanian and Bosniak communities (two nationalities that boycotted the referendum of 1992) was highly influential on the outcome of the referendum in which they said no to a union with Serbia, by which they were victimized in the 1990's.[http://www.balkanupdate.com/2006/05/albanians-and-bosniacs-make-montenegro. This fact was, and still is being used by Serbian media and nationalist structures in Serbia to complain about and denounce the results of the referendum.

International reactions

On May 22, Croatian President Stipe Mesić sent a message of congratulations to Montenegro on its vote for independence. Mesić was the first foreign head of state to react officially to the vote.

The EU's foreign policy chief, Javier Solana, has congratulated Montenegro on a "successful referendum" and said the turnout of over 86 percent "confirms the legitimacy of the process." The European Union will, he said, "fully respect" the final result.Radio Free Europe: Montenegrins Close To Independence. The EU's commissioner for enlargement, Olli Rehn, said the European Union would now put forward proposals for fresh talks with both Montenegro and Serbia. "All sides should respect the result and work together in order to build consensus on the basis of the acceptance of European values and standards. I now expect Belgrade and Podgorica to engage in direct talks on the practical implementation of the results".EUobserver.com: EU prepares for separate accession of sovereign Montenegro

In a statement of 23 May, the United States fully supports the OSCE/ODIHR assessment of the election, which stated that "the referendum was conducted in line with OSCE and Council of Europe commitments and other international standards for democratic electoral processes." "We urge Montenegro and Serbia to work together to resolve the practical issues necessary to implement the will of the people of Montenegro as expressed in the referendum."U.S Statement on the Montenegrin Referendum on State Status

Russia respects the choice made by Montenegro's citizens who voted for independence, the Russian Foreign Ministry has said in a statement on 23 May. “It is of fundamental importance for Montenegro and Serbia to enter into constructive, friendly and comprehensive dialogue with the aim of producing mutually acceptable political solutions regarding their future relations,” the Foreign Ministry said.Moscow respects choice of Montenegro's people

The British Europe Minister Geoff Hoon said he was pleased that the referendum had complied with international standards, pointing out that "the people of Montenegro have expressed a clear desire for an independent state."Minister for Europe Geoff Hoon MP welcomes Montenegro referendum result; Government News Network; 23 May 2006

A spokesperson for the Foreign ministry of the People's Republic of China indicated "China respects the choice of people of Montenegro and the final result of the referendum" in a regularly-scheduled news conference on 23 May. Foreign Ministry Spokesman Liu Jianchao's Regular Press Conference on 23 May 2006

The unanimous recognition of the referendum result - albeit preliminary - by the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council indicates that widespread international recognition of Montenegro will likely be swift once independence is formally declared.

Serbian reactions

The Serbian president Boris Tadić has accepted results of Montenegro referendum in favour of independence, while the Serbian prime minister Vojislav Koštunica—a firm opponent of the break-up of the Serbia-Montenegro union—is still waiting for the end of the week, so the Pro-Serb Montenegrin opposition has the time to challenge the final verdict.DTT-NET: Serbia's president recognises Montenegro referendum results, PM waiting

The prime minister of Kosovo, Agim Çeku, put the world on notice that they would be next in the quest for independence, saying "This is the last act of the historic liquidation of Yugoslavia /.../ this year Kosovo will follow in Montenegro's footsteps." Kosovo is currently administered by the United Nations, but is seen by Serbs as the historical and spiritual heart of Serbia.EUobserver.com: EU prepares for separate accession of sovereign Montenegro

Ethnic Serb groups in neighbouring Bosnia and Herzegovina plan to demand from the international community a referendum on the independence of the Republika Srpska, Croatian daily Večernji list has reported, citing Branislav Dukić, leader of Spona, a regional Serb organisation.Vecernji list: Reakcije Republika Srpska nakon crnogorskog referenduma Since such a move could start another war in Bosnia it has provoked widespread condemnation from the US, EU and other nations. Recently Milorad Dodik the prime minister of Republika Srpska has withdrawn his calls for a referendum citing international opposition.

References

External links

2006 elections | Politics of Montenegro | Referendum | Elections in Montenegro

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