Bill James

Bill James (born October 5, 1949 in Mayetta, Kansas) is an influential baseball writer and statistician. Since 1977, James has written more than two dozen books devoted to baseball history and statistics. His approach, which he termed sabermetrics in reference to the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR), attempts to use scientific data collection and interpretation methods to explain why teams win and lose.

Biography

After four years at the University of Kansas and one course short of graduating, James joined the Army in 1971. James was the last person in Kansas to be drafted for the Vietnam war, although he never saw action there. Instead, he spent two years stationed in South Korea, during which time he wrote to KU about taking that final class. He was told he actually had met all his graduation requirements, so he returned to Lawrence in 1973 with degrees in English and economics. He also finished an Education degree in 1975, also from the University of Kansas.

The Bill James Baseball Abstracts

An aspiring writer and obsessive fan, James began writing baseball articles after leaving the United States Army in his mid-twenties. Many of his first baseball writings came while he was doing nightshifts as a security guard. Unlike most writers, his pieces didn't recount games in epic terms or offer insights gleaned from interviews with players. A typical James piece posed a question (e.g., "Which pitchers and catchers allow runners to steal the most bases?") and then presented data and statistics that answered the question.

Editors considered James' pieces so unusual that few believed them suitable for their readers. In an effort to reach a wider audience, James self-published an annual book titled The Bill James Baseball Abstract beginning in 1977. The first edition of the book presented 80 pages of in-depth statistics compiled from James' study of box scores from the preceding season.

Over the next three years, James' work began to win respect. New editions added essays on teams and players. By 1982, sales had increased tenfold, and a media conglomerate agreed to publish and distribute future editions.

While writers had published books about baseball statistics before (most notably Earnshaw Cook's Percentage Baseball, in the 1960s), few had ever reached a mass audience. Attempts to imitate James' work spawned a flood of books and articles that continue to this day.

In 1988, James ceased writing the Abstract, citing workload-related burnout and concern about the volume of statistics on the market. He has continued to publish hardcover books about baseball history, which have sold well and received admiring reviews; these books include two editions of The Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract.

On two occasions, James has published a series of new annuals. The Baseball Book (1990-1992) was a loosely-organized collection of commentary, profiles, historical articles and occasional pieces of research. The Player Ratings Book (1993-1995) offered statistics and 50-word profiles aimed at the fantasy baseball enthusiast.

Innovations

Among the statistical innovations attributable to James are:

Runs Created. A statistic intended to quantify a player's contribution to runs scored, as well as a team's expected number of runs scored. Runs created is calculated from other offensive statistics. James' first version of it: Runs Created = ((Total Bases * (Hits + Walks))/(Plate Appearances). Applied to an entire team or league, the statistic correlates closely to that team's or league's actual runs scored. Since James first created the statistic, sabermetricians have refined it to make it more accurate, and it is now used in many different variations.
Range Factor. A statistic that quantifies the defensive contribution of a player, calculated in its simplest form as RF = (Assists + Put Outs)/(Games Played). The statistic is premised on the notion that the total number of outs that a player participates in is more relevant in evaluating his defensive play than the percentage of cleanly handled chances as calculated by the conventional statistic Fielding Percentage.
Win Shares. A unifying statistic intended to allow the comparison of players at different positions, as well as players of different eras. Win Shares incorporates a variety of pitching, hitting and fielding statistics.
Pythagorean Winning Percentage. A statistic explaining the relationship of wins and losses to runs scored and runs allowed. In its simplest form: Winning Percentage equals Runs squared divided by the square of Runs plus Runs Allowed. The statistic correlates closely to a team's actual winning percentage.
Major League Equivalency. A metric that uses minor league statistics to predict how a player is likely to perform at the major league level.
The Brock2 System. A system for projecting a player's performance over the remainder of his career based on past performance and the aging process.
Similarity scores. Judging a player's qualifications for the Hall of Fame based on his career's similarity to other HOFers.
Secondary Average. A statistic that attempts to measure a player's contribution to an offense in ways not reflected in batting average. The formula is (Extra bases on hits+Walks+Stolen Bases)/At bats. Secondary averages tend to be similar to batting averages, but can vary widely, from less than .100 to more than .500 in extreme cases. Extra bases on hits is calculated with the formula (Doubles)+(Triplesx2)+(Homerunsx3).

STATS, Inc.

In an essay published in the 1984 Abstract, James vented his frustration about Major League Baseball's refusal to publish play-by-play accounts of every game. James proposed the creation of Project Scoresheet, a network of fans that would work together to collect and distribute this information.

While the resulting non-profit organization never functioned smoothly, it worked well enough to collect accounts of every game from 1984 through 1991. James' publisher agreed to distribute two annuals of essays and data - the 1987 and 1988 editions of Bill James Presents The Great American Baseball Statbook (though only the first of these featured writing by James).

The organization was eventually disbanded, but many of its members went on to form for-profit companies with similar goals and structure. STATS, Inc., the company James joined, provided data and analysis to every major media outlet before being acquired by Fox Sports in 2001.

Acceptance in mainstream baseball

For most of his career, James' ideas have either been ignored or rejected by professional baseball teams. James' sabermetrics rejects much of the "conventional wisdom" that has been passed down by players, executives, and writers over decades. Most teams, managers, and players prefer to continue to follow maxims that were developed decades ago, as well as their "gut instincts".

In recent years, James' ideas have begun to gain official acceptance. Oakland Athletics general manager Billy Beane began applying sabermetric principles to running his low-budget team in the late 1990s, to great effect (as chronicled in Michael Lewis' book Moneyball), and sabermetricians have penetrated other organizations since then.

In 2003, James was hired by a former reader - John Henry, the new owner of the Boston Red Sox. The move generated some controversy, but after 25 years James had finally gained an official position within Major League Baseball. Current Red Sox GM Theo Epstein also turned out to have a sabermetric bent.

One point of controversy was in handling the Red Sox' relief pitching. James had previously published several analyses of the use of the closer in baseball, and had concluded that the traditional use of the closer both overrated the abilities of that individual, and used him in suboptimal circumstances. Reportedly, James influenced a reorganization of the Boston bullpen, with several moderately talented relievers and no clear closer. When Boston lost a number of games due to bullpen failures, they were forced to acquire a traditional closer (Byung-Hyun Kim) in order to address the issue. Many writers considered this to be a rejection of James' ideas, and the signing of ace reliever Keith Foulke following the season further suggests this. Others, however, argue that the Boston pen was simply not very talented and that the outcome doesn't necessarily undermine James' arguments.

It should be noted that Boston did not implement James' idea of the "relief ace". James did not suggest a "bullpen by committee"; rather, his studies showed that the relief ace should be used in close or tie games as early as the 7th inning, when the outcome of a ballgame is really decided. Boston had no relief ace in 2003. During the 2004 regular season Foulke was used primarily as a closer in the Tony La Russa model; however, Foulke's usage in the 2004 postseason was along the lines of a relief ace with multiple inning appearances at pivotal times of the game. Houston Astros manager Phil Garner also employed a relief ace model, perhaps unwittingly, with his use of Brad Lidge in the 2004 postseason, further demonstrating the efficacy of James's relief ace concept.

James is still (2006) employed by the Red Sox, having published two new sabermetric books in the preceding four years. Indeed, although James is typically tight-lipped about his activities on behalf of the Red Sox, he is credited with advocating some of the moves that led to the team's first World Series championship in 86 years, including the signing of non-tendered free agent David Ortiz, the trade for Mark Bellhorn, and the team's emphasis on on base percentage.

Trivia

James was a strong critic of the Dowd Report, which was the most thorough investigation (commissioned by baseball commissioner Bart Giamatti) on the gambling activities of Pete Rose. James, in his Baseball Book 1989, dismissed Dowd's conclusion (based on the evidence available to Dowd at the time) that the former Cincinnati Reds manager bet on baseball games. James reproached commssioner Giamatti and his successor, Faye Vincent, for their acceptance of the Dowd Report as the final word on Rose's gambling. James had his defense of Rose upended when Rose admitted in 2004 that he did indeed bet on baseball.

Bibliography

Bill James Baseball Abstract (annual editions published 1977-1988)
The Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract (1985)

This Time Let's Not Eat the Bones (1989)
The Politics of Glory (1994) (revised as Whatever Happened to the Hall of Fame?)
The Bill James Baseball Book (annual editions published 1990-1992)
The Bill James Player Ratings Book (annual editions published 1993-1996)
''The Bill James Guide to Baseball Managers (1997)
The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract (2001)
Win Shares (2002)
The Neyer/James Guide to Pitchers (2004, with co-author Rob Neyer)

External links

1949 births | Living people | American sportswriters | Boston Red Sox | People from Kansas

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