The next Australian legislative election is expected to take place in late 2007, although it can be held as late as 19 January 2008.

The opposition Australian Labor Party, currently led by Kim Beazley, will be the main challenger to the incumbent Coalition government, currently led by the Prime Minister and Leader of the Liberal Party, John Howard, and his Coalition partner the Deputy Prime Minister and Leader of the National Party, Mark Vaile.

House of Representatives

At the 2004 election the Coalition won 87 seats (Liberal 75, National 12), to the Labor Party's 60 seats. Three independents were elected. To gain outright control of the House of Representatives, the ALP will thus require a net gain of 16 seats.

Redistribution

Due to population shifts, Queensland gains a seat at the expense of New South Wales in a redistribution being conducted during 2006. The Australian Electoral Commission's proposed new boundaries were announced in June. In Queensland, a new Division of Wright, named for the poet Judith Wright, will be created, based on Gladstone and running inland as far as Winton. This would be a marginal National Party seat. In New South Wales, the Division of Gwydir in western NSW would be abolished. A number of other seats would also be substantially changed, including Parkes, Farrer, Calare, Macquarie, Greenway and Hughes. Macquarie would be changed from a fairly safe Liberal seat to a marginal Labor seat, by the inclusion of Lithgow and Bathurst, and Parramatta would be changed from marginal Labor to marginal Liberal. The net effect of the proposed redistribution would thus be to transfer a National Party seat from NSW (Gwydir) to Queensland (Wright). The redistribution will not be finalised until a second round of public comments, and the proposed boundaries may be revised.

Marginal seats

On the current boundaries, the following are the Coalition parties' 16 most marginal seats. Assuming a uniform swing, Labor will need to win all these seats to gain government. These seats are commonly called the "key marginals."

Labor thus requires a uniform national two-party swing of 5.0% to win the election. In practice swing is never uniform, but variations of swing among the states tend to cancel each other out.

Prime Minister John Howard's seat of Bennelong, which has been held continuously by the Liberals since its creation in 1949, is now a key marginal. This area of Sydney has undergone substantial demographic change, and a redistribution has recently reduced his margin further, to 3%.

Retiring members

The following members of the House of Representatives will not be contesting the 2007 election:

• John Anderson (National, Gwydir, NSW): The redistribution commissioners have recommended the abolition of Gwydir. He was quoted in the Australian on 10 July that he was retiring.
• Ann Corcoran (Isaacs, Victoria): lost preselection
• Graham Edwards (ALP, Cowan, Western Australia): announced his retirement January 2006
• Kay Elson (Liberal, Forde, Queensland): retirement reported June 2006
• Warren Entsch (Liberal, Leichhardt, Queensland): has announced his retirement
• Geoff Prosser (Liberal, Forrest, WA): retirement reported June 2006
• Harry Quick (ALP, Franklin, Tasmania): announced retirement August 2005, although has since said he may contest as an independent if his preferred replacement is not preselected
• Robert Sercombe (ALP , Maribyrnong, Victoria): lost preselection 2006
• Barry Wakelin (Liberal, Grey, SA): retirement reported June 2006

Gavan O'Connor (Corio, Victoria) also lost preselection in 2006 but is appealing the vote to the National Executive.

Possibly retiring members

Other members of the House of Representatives who may retire at the 2007 election include:

• Bronwyn Bishop (Liberal, Mackellar, NSW): will be 65 in October 2007
• Alan Cadman (Liberal, Mitchell, NSW): will be 70 in August 2007
• Ian Causley (National, Page, NSW): will be 67 in October 2007. In February 2006 Glenn Milne of The Australian reported that he is expected to retire.
• John Forrest (National, Mallee, Vic): will be 58 in 2007. In February 2006 Glenn Milne of The Australian reported that he is expected to retire.
• Joanna Gash (Liberal, Gilmore, NSW): will be 63 in July 2007
• David Jull (Liberal, Fadden, Queensland): will be 63 in October 2007 (has been an MP for 30 years and is in poor health)
• Judi Moylan (Liberal, Pearce, Western Australia): will be 63 in February 2007
• Paul Neville (National, Hinkler, Queensland): will be 67 in March 2007 (but holds a key marginal seat)
• Roger Price (ALP, Chifley, NSW): will be 62 in November 2007 (but is Opposition Chief Whip)
• Philip Ruddock (Liberal, Berowra, NSW): will be 64 in March 2007 (but is a Cabinet minister)
• Rod Sawford (ALP, Port Adelaide, SA): will be 63 in June 2007 (must retire under ALP rules)
• Alby Schultz (Liberal, Hume, NSW): will be 68 in May 2007
• Bruce Scott (National, Maranoa, Qld): will be 64 in October 2007
• Alex Somlyay (Liberal, Fairfax, Qld): will be 61 in January 2007
• Wilson Tuckey (Liberal, O'Connor, WA): will be 72 in July 2007
• Mal Washer (Liberal, Moore, WA): will be 62 in August 2007
• Margaret May (Liberal, McPherson, QLD: has lost the support of her local electorate council

Preselection challenges

A number of members faced pre-selection challenges during 2006. These were:

Australian Labor Party

• Ann Corcoran (Isaacs, Victoria): lost preselection to Mark Dreyfus, QC
• Michael Danby (Melbourne Ports, Victoria): easily defeated a challenge from Henk van Leeuwen
• Alan Griffin (Bruce, Victoria): very narrowly defeated a challenge from Matt Carrick
• Harry Jenkins (Scullin, Victoria): very narrowly defeated a challenge from Nathan Murphy
• Gavan O'Connor (Corio, Victoria): lost preselection to ACTU Assistant Secretary Richard Marles
• Simon Crean (Hotham, Victoria): defeated a challenge from Martin Pakula, who withdrew after the local ballot
• Robert Sercombe (Maribyrnong, Victoria): lost preselection to AWU Secretary Bill Shorten

Liberal Party

• Petro Georgiou (Kooyong Victoria): defeated a challenge from investment banker Joshua Frydenberg
• Stewart McArthur (Corangamite Victoria): defeated a challenge from Rod Nockles

When the results of the New South Wales and Queensland redistributions are finalised in late 2006, there will be a further round of preselections in both major parties.

Senate

Senators facing election in 2007

Senators who have announced their retirement are marked with an asterisk

New South Wales

George Campbell (ALP)
Hon Helen Coonan (Lib)
Hon Sandy Macdonald (Nat)
Kerry Nettle (Green)
Marise Payne (Lib)
Ursula Stephens (ALP)

Victoria

Lyn Allison (Dem)
Mitch Fifield (Lib)
Hon Rod Kemp (Lib)*
Gavin Marshall (ALP)
Hon Dr Kay Patterson (Lib)*
Hon Robert Ray (ALP)*

Queensland

Andrew Bartlett (Dem)
Hon Ron Boswell (Nat)
John Hogg (ALP)
Hon Ian Macdonald (Lib)
Claire Moore (ALP)
Hon Santo Santoro (Lib)

Western Australia

Mark Bishop (ALP)
Dr Alan Eggleston (Lib)
David Johnston (Lib)
Ross Lightfoot (Lib)
Andrew Murray (Dem)*
Ruth Webber (ALP)

South Australia

Cory Bernardi (Lib)
Grant Chapman (Lib)
Jeannie Ferris (Lib)*
Linda Kirk (ALP)
Natasha Stott Despoja (Dem)
Penny Wong (ALP)

Tasmania

Dr Bob Brown (Green)
Carol Brown (ALP)
Hon Paul Calvert (Lib)*
Hon Richard Colbeck (Lib)
Hon Nick Sherry (ALP)
John Watson (Lib)

Australian Capital Territory

Gary Humphries (Lib)
Kate Lundy (ALP)

Northern Territory

Trish Crossin (ALP)
Nigel Scullion (CLP)

To gain a majority in the Senate, Labor, the Greens and/or the Democrats would need to win two seats from the Coalition. Given that these parties won three of the six vacancies in each state at the 2001 election, they would have to win four vacancies out of six in two states when these seats come up for re-election in 2007. If Labor or the Greens gain one seat from the Coalition, Steve Fielding of the Family First Party would hold the balance of power.

Based in the results of the 2004 election, it is clear that for the opposition parties to gain two seats from the Coalition, a swing of around 10% would be required. In 2004 the combined votes of the ALP, Greens and Democrats, when expressed in terms of quotas, were as follows:

• Tasmania: 3.34
• Victoria: 3.27
• New South Wales: 3.20
• South Australia: 3.12
• Western Australia: 2.97
• Queensland: 2.74

Thus, for the three opposition parties to gain a seat in Tasmania, their best prospect of doing so, they need to increase their combined vote by 0.66 of a quota. A quota is 14.3% of the vote, so the increase required is 9.4%. In Victoria this figure is 10.4%, in NSW it is 11.4%, in South Australia 12.6%, in Western Australia 14.7% and in Queensland 18.0%.

The Australian Democrats are expected to lose their remaining Senate representation, since all their four Senators are up for re-election and their performance remains consistently poor in the polls. However, former leader Natasha Stott Despoja remains in a high-profile role in her home state of South Australia and she may retain her seat, due to her continued popularity. Leader Lyn Allison struggles with her profile in her home state of Victoria and is unlikely to be re-elected.

The following Senators will not be recontesting the 2007 election:

• Paul Calvert (Liberal, Tasmania): announced in April 2006 that he is "most unlikely" to recontest preselection but will serve out his term
• Jeannie Ferris (Liberal, South Australia): The Australian retirement reported February 2006.
• Rod Kemp (Liberal, Victoria): announced in May 2006 that he would retire in 2007.
• Kay Patterson (Liberal, Victoria): has announced she will retire at the 2007 election
• Robert Ray (ALP, Victoria) did not renominate.
• Andrew Murray (Democrat, Western Australia): announced retirement July 2006.

The following Senators are facing re-election in 2007 and may retire:

• George Campbell (ALP, NSW): will be 64 in February 2007
• Grant Chapman (Liberal, South Australia): will be 56 in April 2007 (relatively young but has been an MP and Senator for 30 years and has never held office, and is likely to face a preselection challenge if he recontests)
• Alan Eggleston (Liberal, Western Australia}: will be 66 in December 2007

Election timetable

Given the result of the 2004 election, it is more likely than not that the 2007 election will be a regular election, and not a double dissolution election.

The last date on which the next election can be held is calculated in the following way:

• Section 28 of the Constitution says: "Every House of Representatives shall continue for three years from the first sitting of the House."

• Section 32 of the Constitution says: "The writs shall be issued within ten days from the expiry of a House of Representatives or from the proclamation of a dissolution thereof."

• Section 156 (1) of the Electoral Act says: "the date fixed for the nomination of the candidates shall not be less than 10 days nor more than 27 days after the date of the writ."

• Section 157 of the Electoral Act says: "The date fixed for the polling shall not be less than 23 days nor more than 31 days after the date of nomination."

This parliament first met on 16 November 2004. Therefore it expires on 16 November 2007. The writs must therefore be issued by 26 November 2007 (ten days after the expiry). The last date on which nominations can close is therefore 23 December 2007 (27 days after the writs). The last Saturday on which polling can take place therefore is 19 January 2008 (30 day period following the nomination would expire on the 22nd.). However, no Australian Prime Minister has yet called an election to take place in January.

External link

• Australian Parliamentary Library research note

2007 in Australia | Elections in Australia | 2007 elections